Ecommerce growth has cooled, but opportunity has not. According to Digital Commerce 360’s analysis of U.S. Commerce Department data, U.S. ecommerce sales grew 5.3 percent year over year in Q2 2025, the slowest pace since 2022, while total retail accelerated 4.4 percent in the same quarter, a sign that digital’s outperformance is narrowing and competition for share is intensifying (US ecommerce sales growth continues to slow in Q2). The same update notes ecommerce penetration still accounts for more than a fifth of core retail sales, which means dollars are still very much in play even as growth moderates.

At the same time, consumer sentiment has shifted to cautious. McKinsey’s ConsumerWise pulse shows a sharp tilt toward practicality with trade down behavior pervasive, particularly in discretionary categories, and a net decline in optimism since late 2024 (An update on US consumer sentiment). For founders, brand operators, and ecommerce marketers, this environment rewards disciplined forecasting, agile cash management, and pricing that protects value perception without surrendering margin.

This playbook distills what operators can put into action over the next 90 days. It blends near term moves to preserve cash with demand signal upgrades and pricing tactics proven to win in tough cycles. If you want a steady stream of practical, high signal guidance, join the free weekly newsletter at StoreAcquire where entrepreneurs get curated insights, case studies, and market analysis that translate to faster growth.

The demand backdrop: slower growth, more value seeking, new purchasing behaviors

The growth geometry of ecommerce has shifted from rocket to reliable workhorse. Digital Commerce 360 reports sub 6 percent growth in Q2 2025 for the second consecutive quarter and the closest convergence of ecommerce and total retail growth since the tail of the pandemic, pointing to a new normal of incremental gains rather than surge dynamics (US ecommerce sales growth continues to slow in Q2).

Shoppers are buying more intentionally. McKinsey finds consumers increasingly prioritize essentials, reduce semi discretionary spend, and plan more when they do buy. Trade down is widespread, with three quarters of consumers reporting some form of trading down in early 2025, and many delaying purchases in electronics and apparel as prices and tariffs weigh on budgets (An update on US consumer sentiment).

Payment behavior is also evolving. The Adobe Digital Economy Index shows buy now, pay later volume hit 6.1 billion dollars in September 2025, up 10 percent year over year, with 62.4 billion dollars in BNPL spend from January through September that year (Adobe Digital Economy Index). Mobile continues to dominate checkout share, with Adobe indicating mobile revenue represented roughly 52 percent of online spend in September, which reinforces the need to optimize mobile UI for conversion.

On pricing, online inflation remains mixed. Adobe’s Digital Price Index showed a 0.74 percent month over month decrease in July 2025 across tracked categories, reminding operators that promotions, channel mix, and category dynamics can toggle online prices up or down at different moments in the cycle (Adobe Digital Price Index). The translation for operators is clear. The customer is value conscious, flexible on brands, and actively scanning for flexible payments and fast, affordable delivery.

Forecasting demand when the ground is moving

Classic, single line forecasts break when variance expands. You need a system that is aware of volatility, responds to near term signals, and rolls forward weekly. A lightweight, operator friendly approach looks like this.

• Build a short horizon, rolling forecast at SKU family level. Base it on the last 8 to 12 weeks of demand, normalized for promotions and stockouts, and then overlay three scenarios. A conservative case that reflects increased trade down or tariff sensitivity, a base case anchored to your adjusted run rate, and an upside case tied to specific demand drivers like a product launch or new channel.

• Watch leading indicators that move ahead of revenue. Add to cart rate, product page views, search query intent, and waitlist signups often lead booked demand by one to two weeks. Feed those signals into your weekly Sales and Operations Planning to tune purchase orders and ad budgets faster.

• Segment your assortment by demand pattern. Fast movers, seasonal items, and intermittent demand products behave differently. McKinsey’s operations research suggests AI assisted planning can reduce inventories by 20 to 30 percent when you segment and apply machine learning to forecast and safety stock settings across a network (Harnessing the power of AI in distribution operations). Most brands do not need a data science team to start. You can replicate the logic with basic rules on weeks of cover and reorder points for fast movers, and stricter buy criteria for slow sellers.

• Tie forecasting to elasticities and value perception, not just history. Pricing and demand are coupled. McKinsey’s retail pricing guidance shows that price decisions for key value items should reflect elasticity, competitive gaps, and basket building power in one heuristic, not just prior volume (Pricing in retail: Setting strategy). Use a small set of item segments keyed to how much they influence value perception, then forecast with that lens.

How you operationalize this matters more than the math. Make the forecast a weekly ritual, not a static spreadsheet. When add to cart rate dips on a hero SKU, that drives an immediate ad creative and price test, not a quarterly review. When scenario bands widen during a tariff news cycle, inventory buys flex down and preorder messaging flexes up to preserve cash without surprising shoppers.

Cash flow management that funds offense

In a downturn, cash is oxygen. You want a 13 week cash view, aggressive recovery of cash trapped in operations, and fewer places where capital idles.

Start with inventory. Better forecasting and segmentation helps you buy less of what will sit and more of what turns. McKinsey calls out inventory reductions of 20 to 30 percent by applying AI to forecasting and inventory optimization, with fill rate improvements when control towers flag risk earlier (Harnessing the power of AI in distribution operations). Pair this with a hard rule on “goods to cash speed” by class. Fast movers get weekly buys, mid movers go to monthly buys with smaller lots, and long tail SKUs shift to preorder, on demand production, or drop ship to avoid cash tied up on shelves.

Unlock failed payment cash. Ecommerce often leaks revenue at the payment layer. Stripe reports that in 2023, its revenue recovery tools saved 57 percent of failed payments and recovered 5.32 billion dollars for users, with an average return of nine dollars recovered for every one dollar spent on Stripe Billing tools (Subscription business leaders are looking for a better way to combat churn). Configure smart retries, dunning, and pre expiry card updates on any subscription or installment flows. The compounding effect matters. Stripe observes that a recovered monthly subscription typically lasts another seven months on average.

Use flexible payments to protect conversion and average order value. Adobe’s index shows BNPL demand growing double digits, and buyers have grown used to seeing installment options at the point of consideration (Adobe Digital Economy Index). Shopify’s own data indicates that merchants using Shop Pay Installments see up to 50 percent higher average order value and up to 28 percent fewer abandoned carts when they surface eligibility earlier with on page banners (Shop Pay Installments Banners Boost Sales and Empower Buyers). If your average order value is over 100 dollars, test installment banners on product detail and cart pages and track contribution to revenue and return rates carefully.

Price shipping like a strategic lever, not a fee. The top reasons shoppers abandon checkouts include extra costs that feel too high. Baymard’s 2025 survey shows 39 percent of U.S. shoppers abandoned because of shipping, taxes, or fees, and 14 percent said they could not see the total cost up front (50 Cart Abandonment Rate Statistics 2025). Also, Deloitte points out that beyond price, free and fast delivery are the most important factors pushing shoppers to buy directly from a brand, a finding drawn from consumer research summarized in its Q4 2024 retail trends perspective (Q4 2024 Emerging Retail & Consumer Trends). Set a threshold that is close to your modal order value rather than your mean AOV, then message progress to free shipping clearly in cart.

Shorten your cash conversion cycle with operating tweaks. Take deposits or partial prepayment on made to order or backordered items. Schedule earlier weekly payouts where your payment provider supports it. Negotiate early pay discounts with suppliers for select items where margin allows, but pair that with extending standard terms on lower priority SKUs. Where freight is a swing factor, shift expensive air to consolidated weekly ocean or ground lanes for non urgent replenishment and reserve air for KVIs and hero launches.

Pricing tactics that create value without a race to the bottom

Discounting feels like the obvious move in a recession. It is also the most expensive lever and the one that conditions customers to expect markdowns. Harvard Business Review’s pricing guidance during downturns reminds leaders that pricing power does not necessarily collapse in a recession and that discount traps are real since you need a larger price increase later just to return to parity after a steep cut (Pricing Strategies for the Downturn). Instead of blanket discounts, build a pricing system that aligns to value perception and margin by segment.

Identify your key value items and categories to anchor perception. McKinsey’s retail pricing framework centers on key value categories and key value items. Shoppers carry precise price memory for a small fraction of items and extrapolate their view of your overall price level from those items. Price KVIs to be sharply competitive, then relax competitiveness on background items where price recall is low and elasticity is friendlier to margin (Pricing in retail: Setting strategy). Refresh the KVI list quarterly, not annually, because online demand and competitor pricing move faster.

Set price guardrails and let experiments do the work. McKinsey recommends combining elasticity, competitive price gaps, and economics in a heuristic that sets floor, stretch, and guardrail positions by segment, then layering rapid test and learn to refine positions. In ecommerce, you can A/B test price points for non KVI items by geography or traffic cohorts and watch for conversion inflection points. For KVIs, set the rule to match or stay within a tight band of key competitors and use bundle value or loyalty perks to avoid deeper cuts.

Use architecture, not just promotion, to serve value seekers. Private label and good better best lineups give value sensitive shoppers a way to stay in your brand without discounting the flagship. NielsenIQ’s 2025 analysis shows U.S. private label sales grew 4.1 percent year over year, with 75 percent of consumers saying private label offers good value and 72 percent viewing them as strong alternatives to national brands (Private Label and Branded Products: A Changing Shelfscape). Build clearer entry priced bundles and house brand options in categories where shoppers trade down, and keep hero items premium with value proven content and clear differentiation.

Design promotions to trade up baskets, not train for discounts. Threshold offers and bundles that solve a mission tend to lift margin dollars more reliably than one size fits all percent off. Shopify’s AOV guidance highlights bundling as a durable way to increase cart size and points merchants to the free Shopify Bundles app to create fixed or multipack bundles quickly from the admin (Average Order Value: Formula, Benchmarks and 7 Ways to Increase It). Use merchandising language that emphasizes outcomes rather than savings, for example Complete the kit for camping weekend or The full routine for clear skin, and compare the bundle price to the sum of parts for a clean anchor.

Respect the paycheck cycle and personalize where possible. HBR’s recession pricing playbook suggests calibrating discount timing to pay cycles and using perceived value tactics like bonus packs where appropriate, which can feel equal in value while costing you less than a straight percent off (Pricing Strategies for the Downturn). Layer in personalized offers where you have clear first party signal. Personalized promotions in retail often outperform blanket promotions by a wide margin, and you can deliver personalization through on site recommendations and targeted email rather than perpetual public discounts.

Pipeline, channel, and conversion: plug the leaks and keep CAC efficient

Not every growth dollar should go to paid acquisition when demand softens. Owned channels and conversion wins often produce better returns than incremental ad spend in a tight market. Deloitte points to higher acquisition costs and the need for better ROAS in its 2024 retail trends lens, encouraging brands to pair smarter media with third party partners that improve the journey end to end (Q4 2024 Emerging Retail & Consumer Trends).

Focus your leakage audit where shoppers leave you. Baymard’s longitudinal work shows average cart abandonment hovering around 70 percent and the top avoidable reasons still include forced account creation, long checkout flows, and surprise costs near the end (50 Cart Abandonment Rate Statistics 2025). Fix the basics fast. Offer guest checkout and passkeys, trim form elements, surface all costs early, and add the payment methods your audience expects.

Accelerate checkout on mobile. Adobe puts mobile’s share of online revenue at about 52 percent in September 2025 in the U.S. (Adobe Digital Economy Index). If your mobile PDP and cart feel busy or slow, you are leaving money on the table. Use accelerated wallets like Shop Pay, Apple Pay, and Google Pay so shoppers can check out with one tap. Shopify cites that Shop Pay’s checkout is a top converter on the internet among accelerated checkouts, which matters most on small screens where friction taxes attention and intent (9 Strategies To Achieve a Higher Conversion Rate).

Meet buyers where their budgets are. When average order value is a barrier, surface installment options clearly and early. As Shopify notes, surfacing Shop Pay Installments banners on PDPs and carts pre qualifies buyers and has been linked with up to 28 percent fewer abandoned carts and up to 50 percent higher order values in its dataset (Shop Pay Installments Banners Boost Sales and Empower Buyers). Pair that with transparent shipping thresholds and estimated delivery dates. Deloitte emphasizes that free and fast delivery are top non price motivators for buying direct from a brand, so connect the dots for the buyer before they hit checkout (Q4 2024 Emerging Retail & Consumer Trends).

Keep CAC honest with more owned demand. A recession is the right moment to lean harder into newsletter and SMS growth, partners with overlapping audiences, and an affiliate layer that shares risk. If you are building your stack or planning a replatform to improve conversion, this is also the time to choose tools that minimize overhead and maximize checkout performance. For many brands that means consolidating on a platform with fast mobile checkout, native wallets, and ecosystem reach. If you need that stability and speed, consider launching or migrating on Shopify and then add only the apps that produce measurable lift.

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Your 30, 60, 90 day plan

• Days 1 to 30: Build your weekly forecast system. Create base, conservative, and upside scenarios at SKU family level, normalize last 8 to 12 weeks for promos and stockouts, and wire add to cart rate, PDP views, and search intent into a single weekly dashboard. Audit checkout against Baymard’s top issues. Turn on guest checkout, collapse your form fields, surface taxes and shipping in cart, and add Shop Pay, Apple Pay, and Google Pay. If AOV is above 100 dollars, add installment banners to PDP and cart. Move slow sellers to preorder or longer lead time buys to conserve cash.

• Days 31 to 60: Segment your assortment into KVIs, background items, and basket builders. Use McKinsey’s KVI lens to define competitive gaps and margin targets by segment and set guardrails. Stand up two to three price experiments on non KVI items by channel or geography and define success by contribution margin per session. Build bundles around shopper missions and set a free shipping threshold near your modal order value. Add Stripe revenue recovery features like smart retries and pre expiry notifications to subscription or recurring payment flows so you recover failed payments earlier.

• Days 61 to 90: Build your cash conversion improvements into vendor and logistics rhythms. Negotiate weekly replenishment lanes for fast movers, extend terms on background items, and move non urgent freight to slower lanes to protect margin. Refresh your KVI list and pricing rules with experiment learnings. Expand owned content and email testing cadence, focusing on practical value messages and delivery transparency that Deloitte’s research shows customers respond to. Run a post purchase survey to validate why buyers chose you now and bring that learning back into product, pricing, and messaging.

Practical pricing playbook examples

• Everyday value on a handful of KVIs, with bundles and rewards lifting margin dollars. A skincare brand can price its hero cleanser to match the top competitor and recoup margin by pairing it in a Routine for clear skin bundle with a toner and moisturizer, a pattern Shopify’s AOV playbooks argue can lift cart size while protecting perceived value (Average Order Value: Formula, Benchmarks and 7 Ways to Increase It). The brand can keep the premium serum price firm and create a store brand entry serum to retain customers trading down as NielsenIQ’s private label analysis suggests is happening.

• Perceived value swaps when discounting would destroy positioning. HBR’s guidance notes that offering 20 percent more product as a bonus is often less expensive than discounting 20 percent and maintains reference pricing power (Pricing Strategies for the Downturn). A coffee brand can restructure a bag size to offer 12 percent more in a seasonal pack rather than pricing down, then recover margin with a threshold offer that nudges baskets above the free shipping line.

• Installments to reduce abandonment on high intent carts. Adobe reports BNPL’s continued rise, and Shopify shows measurable lift with Shop Pay Installments banners that pre qualify buyers (Adobe Digital Economy Index; Shop Pay Installments Banners Boost Sales and Empower Buyers). A furniture brand can estimate monthly payments right on PDPs and split the cost for a sofa into manageable amounts so buyers do not abandon at the cart total.

As growth returns to a steadier pace, operators who forecast with better signals, wield cash deliberately, and build a pricing system that sustains value perception win on both revenue and margin. This is exactly the kind of work we unpack weekly at StoreAcquire. Join 15,000 plus founders and marketers who get concise, actionable ideas in their inbox every week. Subscribing takes seconds and you will land on our Thank You page with a welcome pack of our most used checklists and templates.